How Hybrid Working Environment Has Impacted Real Estate Industry

The COVID-19 outbreak and accompanying move to remote work have impacted real estate. Many firms have rethought their physical workspace needs as workers work from home. This has reduced demand for traditional office space and increased demand for co-working spaces. Some commercial real estate developers have had to focus on residential properties or retrofitting office buildings for hybrid work environments. This comprises specialized workstation locations, social distancing techniques, and increased cleaning processes for in-office and remote workers. Hybrid work settings have affected real estate development. With the option to operate from anywhere, corporations may seek properties in lower-cost places, changing real estate values and development patterns.

According to the 2022 Accenture report, 68% of fast-growing companies have adopted a hybrid work model, and more than 83% of employees prefer it. Although the hybrid workplace model has been around for some time, it increasingly became common during the pandemic because of the lockdowns.

Inevitably, the real estate market is changing in response to the evolving trends in office attendance and the widespread belief that hybrid working models are here to stay. Here’s a look at the impact of a hybrid working environment on the real estate industry and how investors can adapt to its changing demands.

Impact Of Hybrid Work Models On The Real Estate Industry

Reduced Demand For Office Space

It is no secret that the widespread adoption of hybrid work models has revolutionized the commercial real estate market. According to a report from CBRE, demand for office space fell in September for the fourth month in a row as occupiers delayed lease decisions.

One of the reasons for the decline is evaluations of hybrid working arrangements by companies. Some organizations may also reduce the size of their workspace due to underutilization.

In addition to catering to employees’ interests in working from home, many companies realize they can make substantial savings by minimizing office space.

Reduced Market Value For Commercial Spaces

A working paper by experts at NYU and Columbia warns that the value of commercial real estate across the country could drop by as much as $500 billion from its pre-pandemic level by 2029 if current trends in working from home don’t change.

The locations of both workplaces and residences significantly impact real estate values and development. When there is less demand for office space, the lease income that the building generates decreases, and so does the building’s market value.

That’s a disaster for commercial space owners, equity investors, and lenders and may lead to bankruptcy and foreclosures.

Increased Demand For The Residential Real Estate

After companies started adopting hybrid working environments, many employees considered moving out to the suburbs, rural areas, or smaller towns because of preference and the high cost of living in the city.

As people no longer commute to and from work daily, there’s no need to live close to a place of employment or a public transportation hub and incur high costs of living. That has led to a dramatic increase in the demand for suburban real estate, which may cause a rise in average prices.

What Can Real Estate Investors Do?

Low occupancy is costly and may render your office building redundant if you do nothing. That said, you can optimize your property in a few ways to help attract occupants, increase demand, and enhance tenants’ satisfaction.

Repurpose Existing Buildings

Office space is becoming obsolete due to the rising popularity of home office workstations. Overbuilt office buildings in areas where property values are declining, vacancy rates are growing, or places far away from public transit are particularly at risk.

RentCafe believes that in 2020 and 2021, 41% of apartment conversions resulted from previously used office space. Investors whose assets are in this position may find that converting their property into residences is their best choice to avoid foreclosure.

Integrate Home Office In Living Spaces

Recent 1-year estimates from the American Community Survey (ACS) by the Census Bureau show that the number of persons who work from home increased from 5.7% to 17.9% between 2019 and 2021.

The necessity for several home offices to support two or more persons working from home has expanded in recent years. Investors can introduce a home office idea tailored to the specific requirements of people working from home. Adding a space specifically for work can drive up the price of new houses and raise the value of existing ones.

Open Data Centers

Companies used to host their private networks and resources locally. However, companies are recently shifting their IT operations to data centers to reduce the need for expensive commercial real estate while improving their IT assets’ performance, reliability, and cost-effectiveness.

Further, the need to securely store and share data among employees who spend time in and out of the workplace has prompted businesses to explore new solutions to accommodate mobile workers.

Hybrid work may cause a surge in demand for data centers, which would be good news for investors in the sector. One thing that is certain about cloud, colocation, and managed data centers is that their global relevance will grow with the speeding up of digitalization.

Co-Working Spaces

Research and forecasts indicate that the co-working space industry will grow by 11% annually ($13.35 billion) between 2021 and 2025. In reality, not everyone can work from home. To make use of time when they don’t have to be at the office, employees who need to clock in a few days a week of office time may look into renting a shared office.

After over two years in business, 72% of co-working spaces reported a positive financial return. That bodes well for real estate investors who put money into shared office spaces.

Short-Term Leasing

Landlords rarely signed short-term leases in the past because it was easy to find new tenants prepared to commit to longer terms. The economic situation is not as rosy at the moment. Currently, landlords are eager for any kind of tenant they can get, as many experts believe it will be years before occupancy rates return to pre-pandemic levels.

Companies that wish to keep a physical office presence but are still unsure about their long-term needs often opt for flexible lease terms. You can increase your office space occupancy by providing shorter lease periods, cooperative rates, and adaptable layouts.

Final Word

There is little question that the hybrid working model is here to stay. However, this may not inevitably indicate a sharp downturn in the real estate industry. It is essentially an opportunity for the sector to adapt in response to consumer and market demands. Real estate leaders must conform to the shifting preferences of their customers by offering fresh, cutting-edge products and services.

By Gurpreet Singh Padda, MD, MBA

www.redpillkapital.com

If you simply need more information. have questions, or want to discuss a specific deal, I’m always excited to help. Reach out to me at info@redpillkapital.com

If you are ready to start your journey to financial freedom but want specific additional educational materials, we have a course designed for physicians.

According to a recent survey, most economists at major US financial institutions expect a recession to hit in 2023. The Wall Street Journal surveyed 23 firms that deal directly with the Federal Reserve, and most of them anticipate that the US will enter a recession in 2023, with only two expecting a recession in 2024.

While many analysts surveyed are becoming more pessimistic about the economy, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., UBS Asset Management, and HSBC believe the economy will defy the unfortunate trend as the price rise slows.

This article looks into the big banks’ predictions about a looming 2023 recession, a Fed pivot on the interest rate hikes, and how these could impact the real estate industry.

What The Big Banks Anticipate

These companies, also known as main dealers, have raised the alarm about several issues, including Americans’ expenditure of their pandemic savings, bond maturities, and the downturn in the property market, directly leading to banks being more stringent with their lending requirements.

The economists mostly agree that the Fed is mostly to blame, as it has been gradually increasing interest rates over the past few months in an effort to slow the economy and control inflation. Although inflation has slowed recently, it is still significantly greater than the Fed’s target.

Seven rate hikes by the Fed in 2022 brought the benchmark rate to a 15-year high of 4.25% – 4.50%, up from 0% to 0.25% the year before. In December, Fed officials clarified they were committed to a gradual rate hike that would bring the target range for interest rates in 2023 to between 5% and 5.5%.

Yields on US government bonds with maturities of three months to two years are greater than those of 10, 20, and 30 years. This phenomenon, known as an inverted yield curve, has preceded every recession since World War II.

In October 2022, the Fed’s estimate reports showed that Americans still have around $1.2 trillion in excessive savings, down significantly from a high of more than $2.3 trillion in 2021. Additionally, the personal savings rate fell to 2.4% in November from a high of 4.7% in January 2022 and 7.3% in 2021.

Most economists also expect higher rates to raise the unemployment rate from November’s 3.7% to above 5%. While this is still historically low, continued rate increases would result in the loss of millions of jobs. The economists cited the number of people filing for unemployment has remained relatively low.
They have also predicted that the slowing effects of higher interest rates will become more noticeable in 2023, even though the economy has held up reasonably well during the rate hikes of 2022. That said, this current US interest rate is the highest it has ever been since 2008.

If the economy contracts, most economists believe it will be a mild recession. By late 2023, they anticipate a recovery in the economy and the stock markets, partly due to the Fed’s shift toward a monetary policy of rate decreases. Many economists expect high returns from bonds and modest gains from stocks in 2023.

How The Looming Recession Could Impact The Real Estate Industry

Although it may seem counterintuitive, the property market may thrive during economic downturns. Here is how the impending recession might affect the market:

Rising Mortgage Costs

Following a year of increases, mortgage rates continued their upward trend in the final week of 2022, ending the housing bubble that the 2021 pandemic had spurred. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has increased to 6.48% as of January 5, 2022, compared to 3.22% from the same time in 2021.

Increasing mortgage rates would make it harder for some would-be buyers to get mortgage financing. However, the Federal Reserve is likely to decrease rates to stimulate the economy in the event of a recession, so consumers can expect any challenges brought on by the increase in rates to be transitory.

Decline In Existing Home Sales And Less Affordability

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales plummeted 7.7% in November 2022 compared to the previous month and dropped 35.4% from November 2021. NAR also reports that this current fall had been ongoing for 10 months, the longest streak since 1999.

The trend may continue with the forecasted economic slowdown coupled with affordability concerns. Moreover, the fact that many mortgage holders still have rates below market rates will contribute to a decrease in home sales in 2023.

Experts also anticipate that refinancing mortgages will continue to be infeasible for most current mortgage holders, restraining mortgage origination activity.

Historical increases in interest rates have led to less affordability. Although home prices slowed and fell in some areas, they are still significantly higher than before the pandemic, making it difficult for many families to afford homes.

The low supply of homes in the market to fulfill buyer demand is one of the main reasons home prices are currently high. Although most economists agree home prices will drop, there’s no consensus on whether home prices will continue to slow down or plummet in 2023.

The recent decline in mortgage rates notwithstanding, a section of the experts believe home values may plummet if buyer demand decreases in 2023 due to the recession and rising interest rates.

Some economists expect home prices to fall considerably further in 2023 due to rising mortgage rates. Most firms predict that the prices could fall by as much as 20%.

However, some analysts say a sharp drop is unlikely, so investors can keep their hopes up. That’s because home prices rose sharply during the pandemic housing boom, and a 20% decline would return the industry to February 2021 levels. They don’t expect the slowdown to throw many borrowers into negative equity.

Final Word

Most of the major financial institutions predict a recession will likely occur in 2023. Recessions are a normal part of the economic cycle and may impact the housing market, possibly slowing home sales. However, investors should treat these predictions cautiously as the economy continually shifts.

Investing in real estate is no longer a secret kept for the nation’s ultra-wealthy! People like you are participating in the action and taking advantage of the numerous benefits of real estate investment.

While the commercial real estate sector is going through a transition, we’re keeping our eyes on what’s important: solid fundamentals. When you’re allocating your hard-earned funds, think long-term and keep it all in perspective.

When you are ready to reap the rewards of real estate investing let’s talk.

By Gurpreet Singh Padda, MD, MBA

www.redpillkapital.com

If you simply need more information. have questions, or want to discuss a specific deal, I’m always excited to help. Reach out to me at info@redpillkapital.com

If you are ready to start your journey to financial freedom but want specific additional educational materials, we have a course designed for physicians.

Economic downturns typically affect everyone irrespective of class, but the poor almost always bear the brunt of recessions. To the wealthy, a recession is nothing but an inconvenience. Not this time round.

Research by financial experts suggests that the next recession predicted to occur in 2023 will likely hurt the rich more than any other economic class. With that in mind, it’s easy to see why they’ve dubbed the 2023 downturn the ‘richcession.’ That is, of course, assuming there will be a recession in the first place.

But, what are the odds an economic downturn will occur in 2023, triggering a richcession? Using the ABC model, the Federal Reserve predicts a 35% chance of a recession in 2023 if there is a tightening of the policy gap. The unconditional estimate is a mere 16%, although a more restrictive policy gap results in a 60% chance of a recession marked by a rapid decline of inflation under the baseline.

Additionally, Lahart argues that the wealth of households in the lower classes grew more throughout the pandemic than those at the top. That could increase the chances of richcession due to the decreased wealth growth among the wealthy caused by a decline in the stock market and a comparatively modest paycheck rise.

What Is Richcession?

A richcession is a sub-branch of a recession, a widespread and prolonged economic downturn that occurs when a country typically experiences decreased economic activity, rising levels of unemployment, and a fall in the nation’s gross domestic product.

In most instances of a recession, the most hard-hit classes are the poor and lower-middle class members. However, this is not always the case. Sometimes recessions affect the rich the most, an isolated circumstance industry insiders refer to as a richcession.

While the US may not be experiencing a recession, the evidence seems to point to one in the near future. A recent Bloomberg survey suggests a 70% chance of a recession in 2023.

Factors like high-interest rates and inflation have fueled the chances of a recession in 2023. Unlike other instances when the US experienced a recession, experts speculate that the 2023 recession will likely affect the rich more than the poor, hence a richcession.

Signs Of A Richcession In 2023

Several factors suggest why there is a strong likelihood of a richcession occurring in 2023:

The Decline In The Net Worth Gap

For the first time in decades, the economic inequality in America has improved. Before the pandemic, the lower 50% were collectively worth $2 trillion. By the end of Q3 2022, that figure had more than doubled to $4.5 trillion.

That is in stark contrast to the fortunes of the high earners. Research shows that individuals between the 50th and 90th percentile’s share of the total net worth dropped from 30.1% before the pandemic to 28.7% by the end of Q3 2022.

As for earnings, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta data shows that workers in the bottom quartile received a 7.4% increase in monthly wage over the same period in November 2021. That measures favorably against workers in the top quartile, who only received a 4.8% increase using the same parameters.

The fall in income for the well-off is significantly attributable to the dip in the stock market. Conversely, the lower 50% can link their fortunes to the government’s COVID-19 relief initiative and the strong labor market.

Changes In The Labor Market

Although unemployment reached an all-time high of 14.7% in April 2020, December 2022 data shows it edged down to 3.5%, well below the long-term unemployment average of 5.73%. Moreover, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show that job openings still outnumber that of unemployed workers.

The other end of the scale shows that high-income earners felt the brunt of the economic slide, with white-collar workers at the center of recent layoffs. The news is full of stories of big tech companies such as Amazon, Meta, and Twitter letting go of high-profile workers, most of who were earning more than $200,000.

Effects That Richcession Will Have On The Wealthy Class

A richcession could impact the well-offs in the following ways:

Termination Of White-Collar Jobs

The richcession will mainly compromise high-income earners. For instance, Salesforce plans to let go of about 10% of its workforce, about 8,000 workers, in the coming weeks of January 2023. They are doing so to reduce expenses due to concerns about the downturn.

That comes hot on the heels of Meta laying off 11,000 workers, Amazon 10,000, and Twitter 7,500 employees. Vimeo also announced in January 2023 that it plans to lay off 11% of its workers following a similar exercise in July 2022.

Plummeting Stock Market

Investing in the stock market is beneficial, but not in the current climate. The looming fear of a recession is negatively affecting the stock market. A continual fall in stock prices will eventually lead to one thing—plummeting net worths.

Businesses That Target The Well-Off In Trouble

2023 might not be a great year for businesses that target the affluent, as that market segment is likely to run into economic headwinds. White-collar jobs are at risk, the stock market is taking a pummeling, the real estate market is cooling, and the economy is on shaky grounds. That will only spur the affluent to tighten their purse strings.

Those that rely on the lower 50% could be on better footing as the jobs market seems to favor lower-level workers. Even if there is a recession, experts expect the jobs market to remain relatively unscathed and wages to remain stable.

How To Prepare For The Richcession

It’s prudent always to have a backup plan in case the richcession hits. You could use these strategies to help minimize the impact of a richcession:

  • Build an emergency fund and always budget: It’s good practice to have some money put aside, no matter the state of the economy. That will come in handy when there is a financial emergency like a richcession. An excellent target is to have an emergency fund that should sustain you for at least six months.
  • Pay off your high-interest debts first: Such as debt from your credit cards. That should free you from punitive debts and give you enough time to build your cash reserves, enabling you to engage in meaningful investments.

Final Word

If 2023 is to experience a recession, it will likely be a recession. It is a highly unusual downturn that affects the affluent disproportionately to the other economic classes.

Already the signs point to a recession. The stock market dip is affecting the rich, more companies are cutting white-collar jobs than blue-collar jobs, and the lower-income earners have received higher income increases than their well-off compatriots.

Investing in real estate is no longer a secret kept for the nation’s ultra-wealthy! People like you are participating in the action and taking advantage of the numerous benefits of real estate investment.

While the commercial real estate sector is going through a transition, we’re keeping our eyes on what’s important: solid fundamentals. When you’re allocating your hard-earned funds, think long-term and keep it all in perspective. When you are ready to reap the rewards of real estate investing let’s talk.

By Gurpreet Singh Padda, MD, MBA

www.redpillkapital.com

If you simply need more information. have questions, or want to discuss a specific deal, I’m always excited to help. Reach out to me at info@redpillkapital.com

If you are ready to start your journey to financial freedom but want specific additional educational materials, we have a course designed for physicians.

Passive Investing As A Full-Time MD With Gurpreet Padda: Discovering Multifamily Podcast Episode 52
On this episode of Discovering Multifamily, Gurpreet Padda joins us as the Founder of Red Pill Kapital and also a full-time physician. We discuss his experience in all aspects of real estate investing, starting his remodeling company when he was just 14 years old, and now how he helps his fellow doctors attain financial independence and practice medicine on their own terms.

www.redpillkapital.com

If you simply need more information. have questions, or want to discuss a specific deal, I’m always excited to help. Reach out to me at info@redpillkapital.com

If you are ready to start your journey to financial freedom but want specific additional educational materials, we have a course designed for physicians.

In this episode, we talk with Dr. Gurpreet Padda. Dr. Padda is a graduate of the University of Missouri, Kansas City Medical School. He is board-certified in pain management, anesthesiology, and age management. He has been featured on Fox 2 Now in St. Louis, MO over the use of CBD oil for pain management. He is also an entrepreneur and real estate investor. Dr. Padda has started Red Pill Kapital, in his own words, “to help my fellow doctors attain financial independence and practice medicine on their own terms.” Doctors needing financial independence? Yes, we discuss that and much more.

Philip Sharp discusses in the essay segment the politicization of the medical field. What effects is it having and what are the consequences of placing healthcare further into the hands of government control?

www.redpillkapital.com

If you simply need more information. have questions, or want to discuss a specific deal, I’m always excited to help. Reach out to me at info@redpillkapital.com

If you are ready to start your journey to financial freedom but want specific additional educational materials, we have a course designed for physicians.

Hi. I’m going to be going over 14 secrets of investing in passive real estate. These are the things I wish someone had told me or things I had to learn the really hard way. You might even call it, “How not to lose millions of dollars when you start out.”

Real estate is the most powerful way to accumulate wealth. More people have become millionaires through real estate than any other means. We know how to find the property, create a plan for improving the cash flow, negotiate the deal, and manage the asset. Your passive investment provides you with the opportunity to earn an income without the nine to five. We create a unique business strategy that fits your financial and investment goals. Get the financial freedom you need to do more of what you love. We Are Red Pill Kapital, With A K.

1. Operator Integrity (Each GP)

You want to know about the operator integrity of each of the general partners. You want to know exactly what their experiences are. You are passive in this deal, but the general partner is active. They’re responsible for maintaining and operating this specific investment for you. You’re the customer.

But unfortunately, it’s not that simple. The reality is being the customer, you have to be extremely well informed about the investment to the same level as the general partner, and not only that, you have to make sure that that general partner is going to be well behaved during the timeframe of your investment. You have to do a background check on each and every general partner. You want to make sure that you’ve done a UCC check. You want to
make sure that there aren’t any security law violations. You want to check their creditworthiness. You want to see how close they are to financial solvency or if they’re using your money to solve a problem hidden somewhere else. Are they undergoing bankruptcy somewhere else and this is a way for them to raise a bunch of money and then take advantage of a situation where you’re passive, they’re active, they’re in control, and they have your money?

You Want To Understand The Specific Roles Of Each Team Member

• Who’s going to manage this asset?

• Who’s going to manage ongoing after the purchase?

• Who found the deal?

• What’s the relationship of the deal finder to the property?

• What’s the relationship of the deal finder to the real estate agent?

  • You Want To Figure Out Who Did The Underwriting.

Is the underwriter somebody that’s independent or is the underwriter somebody that’s so dependent upon this deal going forward that they might create difficulty for you by changing the numbers or changing the perception or not adequately stress testing the deal?

  • You Want To Figure Out How They’re Raising The Capital, And That Has A Huge Impact On Your Expected Rates Of Return.

If the capital raise is being done in a global way and there’s a lot of people coming in – potentially customers that could be passive – you’re going to find out that your rates of return will drop. But if it’s a limited raise, if it’s just friends and family, it’s a small group and it’s not actively being marketed to the general public, you’re going to find that your rates of return are higher.

  • You Want To Figure Out Who The Key Principal Is.

Who’s backing the loan? Who’s got the assets that the bank is going to be looking to come back? Because it’s not going to be you. You’re passive. If this is for you, a passive investment, the money that you invested in the only money that you have at risk, but the key principal, whoever that is, they’ve got everything at risk. They’re on the hook potentially for the entire loan.

Understand The Roles Of Each Team Member

2. Incentives Integrity

The key thing is, do you know, do you like, do you trust the general partner? That’s the most important thing. It’s not so much the deal. It’s the general partner.

You want to make sure that the general partner’s incentives are aligned. You want to make sure that they’ve put money in the game, too, because if they didn’t put any money in, they’re not really aligned. Whether you win or lose, they’ve got nothing to lose. Now, there are going to be acquisition fees, no matter how you do it. There are always acquisition fees in any project, and the acquisition fees are not something you should run away from because if there’s no acquisition fee, that means that you’re basically taking a very significant gamble that they didn’t look at a bunch of other deals. The acquisition fee pays for the general partners, whoever was doing the asset analysis, whoever was doing the underwriting to have looked at possibly hundreds of other deals and exclude those from an offering to say, «Look, I looked at 50 other deals. I traveled to 25 other localities and those weren’t good deals. I’m not even going to present those to you.» But that stuff costs money, so the acquisition fee is used to defer or defray the cost for the deals that you didn’t look at. It’s to get rid of the bad deals.

Now, if you’re going to do major construction—and I’m not talking about painting, I’m not talking about changing out a bathroom—but if you’re going to do major construction roundup or you’re going to massively rehab a project, there are going to be construction management fees.

You want to make sure that they’re between five to 10 percent. Obviously, the bigger the project, the greater the construction management fees. You’re going to have to pay somebody to manage the construction because you’re passive. You’re not going to go out to the site. You’re not going to be doing this yourself. If there’s no incentive for the general partners to manage that construction well and efficiently, you don’t get as good of a deal.

The asset management fees are ongoing fees charged to this partnership, and what it is is typically between one and two percent, and they’re used to manage the managers. You have to have somebody who manages the managers – somebody that directly interacts with a management company and makes and holds the management company accountable, to make sure that you’re maximizing your depreciation, to maximizing your marketing, to make sure that all of your assets are protected. If there’s no asset management fee, people are going to lose interest, and you want to make sure that’s between one to two percent. That asset management fee says, «Hey, look. We’re going
to be looking very closely at this project and we want to make sure that nobody screws this up for us.»

You want to make sure that the general partnership returns are only after your preferential return is paid first, and so there’s usually a split. It’s typically between 30 to 50 percent of that annualized or quarterly or monthly return that gets paid to the general partner. This keeps them engaged because if that’s not engaged if there’s not a heavy incentive for them to maximize your return on investment on a cash-flow basis, things can fall through the cracks because the end result is at the end when you sell the thing. That’s an equity position, but the cash flow basis is what do you make every month? What do you make every quarter? Some partnerships payout annually, but most of them payout quarterly. You want to make sure that they maximize your cash flow and that they’re sharing in that, but after they’ve paid your preferential return.

In terms of capital paid for a successful deal, that’s the difference in price between what you purchased the asset at and what you’re selling it at. Typically there’s a split at that, and so that’s typically a 70/30 all the way down to a 50/50 where you’re getting 70 percent and the general partnership’s getting 30 percent, or it could be 50/50 where you’re getting 50 percent and the general partnership is getting 50 percent. I’ve seen some variations of this, and depending upon the class of stock, there may be some variations that have to occur, but that’s your equity raise, so a big chunk of your money comes as cash flow on a monthly or quarterly or even yearly basis. The bigger chunk — the real income — comes when you sell the property or refinance the property.

3. Deal Integrity

You’re looking for the integrity of the deal itself now. You’ve trusted the partnership; you’ve trusted the people in the partnership. Their incentives are aligned, but now is this a good deal? This is very important. This determines how this deal operates, and in deal integrity, the number one thing you have to look at is the demographics. Is the area that you’re investing in growing? Is it stable or is it dying?

You have to realize that real estate is hyper-local, and hyper-locality means neighborhood, street by street. It’s not that I’m investing in Texas, it’s not that I’m investing in San Antonio, a city in Texas, it’s that I’m investing in this three-block or seven-block or 10-block or 14-block neighborhood. It’s that hyper-local. You can’t tell me that if I invest in Texas, I’m going to increase my
real estate value by 7 percent because there are places in Texas that are going to increase their real estate value by 30 percent and there are some areas in Texas that are going to increase the real estate value negative 30 percent.
So it’s hyper-local. It’s not the state, it’s not the city, it’s not a ZIP code. It’s a neighborhood, and that hyper-locality is very important.

There are certain tools that we utilize to determine the hyper-locality of a neighborhood. You want to look at job growth in the region. People live in the region, but they live in a neighborhood, and very specifically jobs come to the region. They might be in industrial parks, but people don’t live in industrial parks. They live in neighborhoods. You want to look at population growth for that city because it’s almost impossible to get direct population growth for a neighborhood, but you can get population growth for the city.

You Want To Look At Household Income And Its Affordability.

Is the price that you’re paying close to what it would cost for somebody to just go ahead and buy? Then there’s a lot of competition for your product. If, on the other hand, the price that you’re paying per unit is relatively low and the cost of them purchasing a similar amount of square footage is high, it’s highly likely that they’re going to rent instead. That concept is called affordability. It’s a comparison for price to rent versus price to buy for a similar sort of asset.

When they underwrite this deal, if they’re using non-recourse lenders, that’s a really good thing because the non-recourse lenders are an additional set of eyes on this deal. They’re going to hire an outside independent consultant or they’re going to use an inside independent consultant who’s going to stress test the deal. They’re going to figure out: is the information being provided accurate or inaccurate? They’re going to look at that cap rate. They’re going to look and see what your start cap rate is. If it’s a value-add deal, it doesn’t matter so much, but if it’s a stabilized deal, the cap rate is what you’re going to be making, so you want to look at how this deal is being underwritten. Is this deal being written, underwritten, as a cap rate with a value add? Then you want to look. That incoming cap rate doesn’t mean anything, but if this is a stabilized deal and your cap rate is 4 percent and your interest rate is 4 percent, it doesn’t leave a lot of room to make cash flow. Now, it may appreciate over time, but the cap rate is going to determine your cash flow.

  • Demographics Before Underwriting
  • Hyper-locality
  • Population growth
  • Job growth
  • Household income and affordability
  • Underwriting This Deal
  • Non-recourse lenders add additional layers of due diligence
  • Cap rate and value add

You Want To Make Sure That The Deal Is Stress Tested

• That means what would happen if occupancy dropped to its historic low?

• What would happen if prices would drop to their historic low?

• What would happen if cap rates went up?

Because the higher the cap rate, the lower the price, and so you want to be able to predict your monthly or quarterly income, and you want to predict your exit as well.

4. Property Evaluation

You obviously need somebody that’s going to look at that property in real-time before you’ve invested. Typically, it’s done with a property management company that’s going to come in and long-term manage that deal. You want to make sure that each and every unit has been walked, that each unit has been memorialized by photography, so they’ve looked under the sinks and photographed the stuff, that they’ve looked at each appliance and categorized it.

• How many dishwashers will need to be replaced?

• How many refrigerators will need to be replaced?

• What’s the likelihood going forward that we have to change this electric system?

• Are there GSCFIs in the wet spaces?

You Want To Look At Each Mechanical System.

What’s the lifespan of the motors that are expected for this HVAC unit? One of the things — a horrible mistake that I’ve made — is I forgot to have a sewer scoped once. That was a $15,000 disaster.

You Want To Look At The Usable Lifespan Of The Roof.

I did a project once that I was able to identify that the roof was at the end of its usable lifespan, and right before closing when I got my roofing report back, I was able to get a $400,000 credit on a usable lifespan of a roof on a commercial strip center. It’s very important that you know eyes wide open going into a project what’s going to be happening. Foundation work may sometimes require a specialist. You can’t just look at a foundation and say, «Oh, this is awesome. This foundation looks fine.» There are things that people hide in foundation work with stucco or dry wall that you can’t identify right now, and they may move subtly over the next six months, a year, or five years, and then when you’re trying to sell, somebody does a foundation report and it decreases your value by 30 percent, and all of a sudden the big profit that you were going to have doesn’t even exist.

A Lot Of Lenders Require Flood Letters.

That determines, is this property in a flood zone? Now, you have to realize that flood letters change over time and historic areas that used to never flood are now starting to flood, so you want to get a professional evaluation. Is this area prone to flooding? When you do your memorialization of each unit, you’ll be able to identify if there’s mold underneath the sinks. You’ll be able to identify if your tiles have asbestos in them. Is there lead in the paint? Are there other hazards that are lurking under the ground such as petroleum from a leaking gas station nearby? These are all environmental issues that become very significant because it’s not just that you’re buying this property – you’re eventually going to be selling this property, and you may be selling to somebody who is very, very detail-oriented, and this may destroy your value if you don’t yourself become very, very detail-oriented.

5. Comparative Market Analysis (CMA)

You Want To Make Sure That They’ve Done A Comparative Market Analysis, Not Just Of What’s The Value Of This Property Because The Value Of The Property And Commercial Is Typically A Derivative Of Cap Rates.

What you want to figure out is that your comparative market analysis for rental rates going forward for this particular asset, this class of asset, this space, this kind of amenities, is accurate. Remember I said that real estate is hyper-local, so you can’t use a rental rate comparison for a property that is on the other side of town. You can’t use a rental rate comparison for something that might only be four or five blocks away if it’s a different neighborhood.

So, I typically do all my comparative market analysis on a basis of the neighborhood, and usually when I have a property team go out and look at the specific property that we’re doing and we’re taking photographs of each and every single unit and we’re memorializing each and every single unit, the next day we do go out and do a comparative market analysis. We visit all of the local neighborhood apartments, all of the local neighborhood areas, and try to get an idea of what are these people charging and how relevant is our rental rate to their rental rate.

You want to be able to determine what’s going to happen to your rental rate by your asset class, with your level of amenity, and based upon the demographics that you’re both serving. If the apartment three blocks away have twice the household income that your apartments do, you’re really living in two different neighborhoods, so there could be a significant difference.

I always do a reputational search on each and every unit because that tells me in terms of multifamily, what’s the reputation of the management company that’s currently there? That’s one of the easiest things to fix. Now, if it turns out it’s a horrible result, then I may have to change signage and change the name because that’s the only way I can get away from the original reputation, so I have to build that into my cost, that I’m going to have to re-market the entire system and change all of the signage. Typically, I also change the color scheme so that the drive-by looks totally different.

6. The Value Add Plan

You want to look at their value-add plan if that’s the way that they’re going to be going. One of the things that I always look at is what’s my occupancy or vacancy? If there’s almost no vacancy, that could be a problem. If I’m running close to 100 percent occupancy, what that tells me is either the management company is really lazy because they don’t want to raise rents and nobody wants to move, or I’ve completely distorted this market. Now, the other thing is if there’s a high vacancy – i.e. a low occupancy – that could be a problem, too. Have I already reached the maximum amount of rentals that I can get to, or is it so mismanaged that I can’t get customers in the door?

In my value-add plan, I also look for sources of net operating income. What are the other things that I can add that will generate my net operating income? Because the net operating income will determine the value because NOI divided by cap rate equals the value change that I’m going to get. So if I can get a slight increase in the laundry or start charging some parking fees, if I can get some cable or internet fees, if I can start charging for pets, if I can force the tenants into paying a proportional share of the utilities, if I can increase the water efficiency, I’ve dramatically increased the net operating income. Based on the cap rate for that area, I could have dramatically increased the value.

The areas that I look for in a value-add plan is I do marketing first. I increase the inflow of customers. Then I look at areas of increasing that operating income. Then I start doing things like curb appeal and kitchen and appliances and baths, and I only keep my rehab budget, which is a large capital expenditure, after I fix the first problems. It’s a tiered approach. You don’t want to do a major rehab budget and use your cash flow to pay for it if you haven’t even fixed your marketing first. You want to get maximization of the lowest-hanging fruit first before you spend a ton of money on capital expenditure.

7. About This Deal Structure?

Now, look at your deal structure. There are two kinds of essential deals that people look at 506b and 506c. Do you want to know what the structure of that deal is? A 506b, you can sell for credit and say that you’re an accredited investor or you’re a sophisticated investor and
they’re letting you into the deal, but this deal isn’t advertised to a lot of people. Usually, I find that my rates of return are higher in a 506b.

A 506c says, «Hey, I’m a verified accredited investor. Third parties verified me, but this deal might be advertised to a lot of people and it might be heavily advertised on Facebook and it might be advertised on other areas and portals.» Frequently, I find that my rates of return are a little bit lower here. You want to know what your investment minimums are and what your investment maximums are because if your investment maximum is low and you’re trying to deploy cash, your cash multiple may not be that good. I have a minimum amount that I want to invest and I want to know that I can deploy that capital and it’s going to be safe and I’m going to get a multiple of that capital coming back.

You want to know what’s the time element for your soft commitment and when do you go hard on your commitment and when do you have to actually transfer that capital? I’ll talk about transferring the capital in a second.

You want to review the detailed subscription agreement. Was this professionally prepared? Did an attorney put this together? Does it make sense? Did you read the thing? I find that the private
placement memorandums, most people don’t even read. Take that nondisclosure that’s in there very seriously. If you’re taking the information and sharing it with friends, that’s not cool because if they disclose that information, especially if there’s information about tenants in there, you could jeopardize your position in this project and you could actually be sued. Take the nondisclosure very seriously in sharing that information outside you.

You want to know: should you visit the site? Can you delegate this? Most passive investors don’t visit the site, but occasionally if you’re in the neighborhood, if you live nearby, it might be worth your while to visit that site.

One of the biggest mistakes I’ve ever made was unfunding or transferring capital because I screwed up my routing numbers, so I always validate the routing by two different modalities – typically by a phone call, email, or text. I use two different methods to verify and validate that routing number so that my money doesn’t end up in Uzbekistan.

8. Financial Integrity

You want to look at the financial integrity of the deal. Have they set up strategic reserve accounts to hold capital expenditure budgets? Because you don’t want to use cash flow for capital expenditure. Capital expenditure should be set aside at the beginning so you can predict it.

One of your biggest expenses in real estate is going to be your taxes, and you want to make sure that they’re setting aside money through the year to pay for the taxes. You don’t want a cash call on this thing at the end of the year. You want a separate operating account. That operating account is what the management company works out of, and then they sweep the operating account to the rest of the accounts.

You want to make sure that the reserve accounts are there so that there’s an adequate amount of money for unexpected things and there’s an adequate amount of money for expected things. You know that a particular lifespan of a roof is going to be 30 years. You know that refrigeration equipment lifespan is five years. You know that everything such as carpet has a certain lifespan. You know that flooring has a certain lifespan. You know that painting has a certain lifespan, so you want to be able to predict that and have reserve accounts that account for that in a continuous method. The longer the deal – the longer the length of the deal – the risk of the deal goes up because a lot more things can happen. Economic risks can happen, property risks can happen, and demographic shifts can happen, so the longer the length of the deal, your risk goes up. If it’s a 20, 30-year deal, it’s much riskier than a three- to a five-year deal.

Most people think that the larger the deal, the higher the risk. That’s simply not true. The larger deal decreases the risk, and the reason is that in a larger deal, you’re forced to have professional third-party maintenance and management companies. You’re forced to have additional oversight and you get economies of scale. In construction, you get economies of scale and maintenance. You get economies of scale in marketing, and individual occupancies have much lower individual impacts on your cash flow. The more the number of units, the greater the incremental income enhances the value. If you’re trying to increase rent by $10 a unit in 10 units compared to $10 a unit in 100 units, the net operating income is much greater at the same cap rate, and so the value is tremendously greater.

9. Communication Integrity

You want to make sure that they communicate with integrity. You don’t want to get communications on a monthly or quarterly basis that have a bunch of fluff. You don’t care about family pictures. You don’t care about Fluffy the pet. You don’t care about travel pictures. What you care about is the property.

I recommend that you have pictures and videos, and you also have net cash flows that go hand in hand with marketing reports, and all of this is archived so that you can go back and compare month over month over month and look at each of the reports and validate their integrity.

I set up a separate Excel spreadsheet for each individual investment that I go into and I archive all of the information in a single folder, and then I have a spreadsheet that tells me: This is my expected date of next payment, this is my expected rate of return, and when the deal opens and when the deal closes, I revalidate. I go back and look at what they promised and looked at what they delivered, and I want to make sure that they underpromised and end up overdelivering. I want to make sure that there’s integrity in that communication so that I don’t get surprised by unusual things.

The Management Company Should Be Generating A Marketing Funnel Report For You.

• How many people called about the property?

• How many people came out and visited the property?

• How many people submitted an application for the property?

• How many people did we reject from that application?

• How many people did we accept from that application?

• How many people moved in?

• What’s our expected occupancy a year from now, six months from now, a year and a half from now on a month-to-month basis so you can predict looking forward when people are vacating units?

• Do I need to gear up marketing the two months or the one month before a high vacancy is expected?

You want to make sure that there’s a comparative market analysis being done in real-time. You want to make sure that people are looking at the rental rate changes and you get that done at least on a monthly or quarterly basis so you can see where your property’s positioned compared to the market. You want to be very wary of vacancies. Is my vacancy high or is my vacancy too low? If your vacancy is too low, that means you’re not charging enough. What kills most deals is turnover. If you have tenants moving in and tenants moving out, you have to reset that unit nearly continuously. If you have to reset the unit, that costs significant amounts of money and may destroy your cash flow.

10. Compensation Model

On The Compensation Model, Look At The Preferential Return.

11. Deal Exit

You Want To Look At The Deal Exit. Are They Applying The Right Cap Rate For The Expected Deal Exit?

I typically increase my cap rate by 0.2 per year, so 20 basis points goes up per year of the hold. So in a five-year deal, I’m increasing my exit cap rate or my reversion cap rate, by 1 percent. This is really important because this is part of the stress test. Now, it may not go up by 1 percent, but what a 1 percent increase in cap rate does is it forces the value down of the project for the same NOI, and this gives me a better prediction of what I could exit this deal at. Now, I’m hoping that my cap rate stays the same or drops because then my value goes up dramatically, but I want to expect that it may go up, and it really depends on a lot of factors in the economy at the time of the exit.

Does that bring us to the concept of is the exit a hard exit or is there a lot of variability in it? I prefer a lot of variabilities because if there’s an opportunity to hold a property for another year or to exit early by two years to get a better price, I want that executed.

You also want to look at the deal exit. Is this a refinance or are they reselling? You want to look at the contingency plans in case the general partnership becomes incapacitated. Let’s say that it’s a small partnership that’s running the GP. What happens if that general partnership becomes incapacitated? Who’s going to run this deal and how are they going to get you all the way to exit and make that money?

Some people are doing a lot of investment in opportunity zones because there’s a deferral on your taxes in opportunity zones. This is not relevant to you if you’re investing through an IRA. The opportunity zones really don’t mean much to you. Now, if you’re investing directly, opportunity zones do mean something to you, but the thing is a 10-year exit dramatically increases your economic risk. You’re marrying this general partner for 10 years. You really have to vet that general partner, and usually, most of my opportunity zone projects are significant value-add and rehabilitation, so that can have a very big impact.

12. Is This Deal Worth It?

At the end of the day, is this deal worth it? How much am I investing, how long is the deal, what’s my return, how often do I get paid out, and what’s the deal split?

That IRR really is impacted, and that IRR is the internal rate of return. What that tells you is what is my net present cash flow or what’s my net present cash for a future cash flow, and depending upon the timing of the distribution, it can dramatically change the IRR. That may or may not be relevant to you because if you’re using your cash flow for living expenses, that IRR is really important, but if you’re just simply accumulating the cash, that IRR may not be as relevant and your total return may be more relevant.

13. Deal Metrics

(Beyond The Pref And Split)
You Want To Look At The Deal Metrics Beyond Simply The Pref And The Split. What’s The Cap Rate Against The Interest Rate? Is This A Value-Add? Is This Not A Value-Add? What’s Your Reversion Cap Rate? These Are All Relevant.

You want to look to make sure that they’re using the leverage because if they’re not using the leverage, and they’re using only your money, it
dramatically reduces your return because typically using leverage gives an extra set of eyes to the project with the bank. It’s a one-to-five ratio and usually, the interest rate is far below the cap rate, so you’re making money off of the bank’s money without taking a significant additional risk.

  • Cap Rate
  • Interest rate
  • Value add
  • Reversion cap rate

You want to look at your cash-on-cash return. You want to look at your annualized return, which is all of your money back divided by the number of years. You want to look at your equity MURP multiple, which is how much money did I make against how much did I invest. IRR we’ve kind of gone over, which is what’s my value of cash today based upon a future revenue of cash flow, and that can be quite detailed. That’s something that I typically will plot out on an Excel spreadsheet and look at, but it’s not really relevant as much to me as my annualized return rates.

14. Your Personal Situation Impacts

How are you going to be investing? Is this through an LLC? Are you investing directly? Is this through a trust account? You want to look at does this project allows 1031 exchanges? If it does, they have to set up tenants in common for you. Does this project accept IRA or Roth, and if it does, what’s the impact on UBIT? If they use leverage, you’re going to be paying taxes on some of this gain at the highest tax rate there is, and you can’t escape that. You may end up paying trust taxes that are very significant.

What kind of investors are they taking? Is it 506b? Is it 506c? Are they taking accredited or are they taking sophisticated? Accredited is that you have an annual income of $200,000 yourself or $300,000 joint income for the last two years or an individual or joint net worth value exceeding $1 million. A sophisticated investor is somebody who knows something about this and is a friend, and the deal sponsor knows them well, and that’s Aunt Sally who doesn’t have a lot of money but wants to invest in the deal. That would be typically a 506b and it cannot be advertised.

You Want To Look At The Time Horizon.

Will I need this cash in the near future and does the time horizon match my requirements?
If I need the cash in two years but the time horizon on this deal is five, this is not a good deal for me.

You Want To Look At What If

• What if I have an emergency situation? A medical situation?

• If I have to do a liquidation?

• What happens if my preferential returns are delayed?

• What happens if my entire investment is lost?

• How will this impact me?

It’s not just the deal, it’s you, and you need to make sure that you fit in well with this particular deal. Ultimately, how much am I putting in? How much do I get out and when? What’s the likelihood of losing it all?

You’ve got to look at the whole package and look at the tax implications of depreciation, and most importantly, you have to know, like, and trust the deal sponsors.

Red Pill Kapital Is A Way For Us To Invest With You. If you’re looking to enhance your financial wealth and truly live the life that you deserve, then this is for you. If you’re an accredited investor and you’re interested in learning more about passive investing, this is probably for you. If you’re interested in investing alongside us, this is probably for you. The thing is, we don’t need your money. We have money. We’ve done huge projects. What we want to do is do bigger projects, create more leverage. The bigger the project, the lower the risk, the higher the return. We only make money if you make money because we’re aligned with you.

We search for value-added real estate for our passive commercial real estate partners, and we actively manage that investment long-term for a successful exit.
Find us at blacklistedagency.com/projects/redpillkapital/

If you simply need more information. have questions, or want to discuss a specific deal, I’m always excited to help. Reach out to me at info@redpillkapital.com

If you are ready to start your journey to financial freedom but want specific additional educational materials, we have a course designed for physicians.

Aviation United by AviationZorro chatted with Doctor and Red PIll Kapital (Commerical Real Estate Investment, development, and management company, with a focus on creating asymmetric returns for its investors) Founder Dr. Gurpreet Padda. The podcast explains Dr. Gurpreet’s background, What is Financial Well-being/Awareness, Financial difficulty and the impact on Mental-Health and Well-being, Why we love to spend money, the cost of training to become an Aviation Professional compared to the return in that investment, is it advisable to have a financial advisor, how to manage money, An overview of Red Pill Kapital.com. Dr. Gurpreet has offered a Complimentary course worth $975 Dollars to listeners of this podcast. All you have to do is, listen to the podcast, reach out to Dr. Padda and let his team know you listened to the AviationZorro Podcast with Dr. Gurpreet Padda. https://redpillkapital.com/ info@redpillk.comDisclaimer: This podcast and website represent the opinions of AviationZorro and our guests to the show and website.

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www.redpillkapital.com

If you simply need more information. have questions, or want to discuss a specific deal, I’m always excited to help. Reach out to me at info@redpillkapital.com

If you are ready to start your journey to financial freedom but want specific additional educational materials, we have a course designed for physicians.